‘Elites’ and misery: Australia’s numbers
Peter Turchin’s ‘End Times‘ builds the case for a data-driven interpretation (and prediction) from historical evaluation of prior social dislocations. He is abit famous as he predicted, in 2013, that there would be a disintegrative event for the USA in 2020.
The book touts two key metrics – number of elites (i.e. educated and/or wealthy) in a country and the ratio of median income to GDP per capita – as the key to understanding where a country is positioned in a integrative/disintegrative cycle of its body politic.
Let’s calculate these numbers right now as starting point.
Below is the ratio of median single person income to GDP per capita.
| Country | Median Single Person Income (USD) | GDP per Capita (USD) | Ratio of income to GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 44,535 | 55,060 | 81% |
| USA | 34,940 | 65,297 | 54% |
| England | 31,460 | 42,330 | 74% |
| Finland | 36,000 | 48,783 | 74% |
The percentage of population who are university educated and are millionaires is shown in the table below.
| Country | % of Population with university education | % of Population who are millionaires |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 32% | 3.4% |
| USA | 50% | 5.9% |
| England | 42% (for the UK) | 3.2% (for the UK) |
| Finland | 39% | 2.5% |
So where does Australia stand?
- Australia shows a higher ratio of income to GDP than the comparable countries
- Australia has a lower number of university educated and high wealth elites compared to other countries (except Finland which has a very low number of high wealth elites
The book then sits those metrics within the country’s context. One of the typologies used in country context is the ‘ocracy’
The table below sets out different ‘oracies’ with example countries (again provided by ChatGPT).
| Government type | Country examples |
|---|---|
| Theocracy | Iran, Vatican City |
| Plutocracy | While no country openly operates as a plutocracy, critics argue that some countries, such as Russia and even the United States, have plutocratic elements. |
| Democracy | United States, Canada, Germany, Australia, India |
| Aristocracy | Historically, countries like France and England. Today, no countries operate as pure aristocracies, but the United Kingdom has aristocratic elements. |
| Autocracy | North Korea, Eritrea |
| Oligarchy | Russia has often been described as an oligarchy. |
| Kleptocracy | Unfortunately, many countries have been described as kleptocracies at some point, including North Korea, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. |
| Technocracy | While not a pure technocracy, Singapore has been praised for its technocratic elements. |
| Meritocracy | Singapore is often cited as a country with meritocratic elements. |
| Monocracy | Eritrea, North Korea |
If we take Australia as a democracy, then a low education level and low number of millionaires compared to the population, plus a high relative ratio of income to GDP means that these is not likely to be a disintegration in the near term.
A rather bland analysis.
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