Random Notes from ‘Inadequate Equilibria’ by Eliezer Yudkowsky
September 19, 2018
For people more disposed to iconoclasm than conformity – inadequacy analysis (understanding that incentives can create inadequate solutions, solvable on a local level but rarely on a global level) can direct them towards productive directions
Pay more attention to observations than theory when you are lucky to have both and they conflict
Put yourself and your skills on trial in every accessible instances where you are likely to get an answer within the next next minutes or weeks
Update your beliefs hard on a single point if you don’t already have twenty other points
Thought exercises to interrogate a theory
- see if the explanation seems stretched
- figure out the further consequences
- consider alternative hypothesis for the same observation
If you are trying to do something unusually well, you need to seek out the most neglected problems and:
- use information not widely known or accepted
- avoid modesty that discourages action, less-than-certain bets or breaking new ground
Business refresh – advisory business in a changing world
Expectations of future price increases
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